2022 Mortgage Volume Predictions

2022 Mortgage Predictions

The mortgage industry is going to see a significant shift in 2022. Although rates are still near all time lows, the simple truth is the industry is out of borrowers to refinance.

There have been more than $8 Trillion in mortgages originated over 2020 and 2021. For context, total mortgage debt in the United States is $12 Trillion.

We analyzed more than 26,000,000 mortgages over recent years to predict how the market divvies up the volume in 2022. We did this in 3 steps:

Methodology

1) First, we looked at each company’s market share. In order to account for the shift away from refinance, we split this by purchase and refinance.

2) Then, we looked at how each company has trended in recent years to account for expected continued gains or losses in market share.

3) Lastly, we applied these market share estimates to the most recent Mortgage Market Forecast published by the Mortgage Bankers Association, specifically by Purchase and Refinance.

Example

As an example, Rocket Mortgage, the country’s largest lender had an 8% total market share in 2020. The story changes when you break it down by mortgage loan purpose. They had an 11% market share in refinance, but only a 2.7% market share in purchase.

Since Rocket had a much higher share of refinance originations in 2020 compared to the industry (88% vs 65%, respectively), they will see a larger than average drop in total mortgage originations in 2022 as refinance volume dries up.

We also took recent trends in market share gains and applied them to each company. Sticking with our example, Rocket has been gaining market share in refinance and we extend that trend into 2022. This marginally offsets the impact from the overall market decline.

Results

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